2018 Senate Predictions

These are my fearless predictions for the Republican/Democrat count in the U.S. Senate that will result from the elections next month, listed in the order that I’m guessing is most likely to occur. 

R Count	D Count
51	49
52	48
53	47
50	50
54	46
49	51

Bottom line, I think the Republicans have a better shot of gaining one or two seats than the Democrats have of gaining just one seat. And I think the Republicans have a better shot of gaining three seats than the Democrats have of gaining two seats and becoming the majority. If there is a 50-50 split, Republicans will retain control thanks to the tie-breaking vote of the vice-president so the chances for Democrats controlling the senate seem to be somewhere between very slim and none.

In making these predictions I leaned heavily on 538’s assessment of polls and fundamentals which you can view by clicking on this link.

Discussion

The most important thing to know about the senate elections this year is that there are 42 incumbent Republican senators that are not up for re-election. Thus Republicans start with an enormous advantage, including the fact that the vice-president will break a 50-50 tie in their favor. So, before you even start looking at the individual candidates and races, you must remember that the deck is stacked in favor of Republicans.

Furthermore, four of the R seats that are up for election this year are in heavily Republican states; Utah, where Mitt Romney is the R choice to succeed the retiring Orrin Hatch, and Nebraska, Mississippi and Wyoming where incumbents Deb Fischer, Roger Wicker and John Barrasso are, respectively, running for re-election. Practically speaking, Democrats have no chance of winning in any of these four states.

Thus, even in the most optimistic scenario imaginable for Democrats, Republicans have a virtual lock on 46 seats; and there are four great opportunities for the Rs to get to 50.

One of those is a second senate seat on the ballot in Mississippi where Cindy Hyde-Smith was appointed to fill in for Thad Cochran who resigned. This is a so-called “jungle primary” where candidates run without party affiliation on Nov. 6 and, if no candidate gets 50 percent, the top two vote-getters face off against one another on Nov. 27. Polls indicate that Hyde-Smith will face former congressman and agriculture secretary Mike Espy, an African-American Democrat, in a Nov. 27 runoff and 538 gives her a seven in eight chance of election to the senate seat she now holds by appointment. Espy’s chances would improve significantly if his runoff opponent was Chris McDaniel but recent polls suggest that is unlikely.

The best of the next three opportunities might be in Tennessee where Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is running against former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Bob Corker.

Earlier in the year Bredesen looked like he might have a chance; but he has not led in a poll in two months and the headwinds seem to have turned against him in a state where President Trump is popular and his opponent (Blackburn) is a Trump acolyte. The Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings and Trump’s rising poll numbers seem to have buoyed Blackburn. 538 gives her a three in four shot of winning the senate seat in Tennessee.

The situation in Texas, where Democratic Congressman Beto O’Rourke is challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, is similar. In fact, on paper at least, Cruz seems to be in a stronger position than Blackburn. 538 pegs his chances of winning at seven in nine and O’Rourke has not led in a poll in more than two months in a race that has been heavily polled. In fact, out of more than three dozen polls, O’Rourke has led just two times, and then only narrowly.

The only reason I didn’t list Texas ahead of Tennessee is that I can see for myself the enthusiasm that O’Rourke (and Trump) has generated in the normally lethargic Texas electorate. The other day we were in the upper-crust, traditionally Republican Alamo Heights area of town where, seemingly, every third house had a Beto sign in the yard. There was not a single Cruz sign. On a recent drive through semi-rural areas between Austin and San Antonio it was similar, Beto signs littered the roadsides in normally Republican territory. And I’m not talking about signs placed at commercial corners by paid sign-putter-uppers. I’m talking about signs stuck in front yards by homeowners that seem to want to make a personal statement.

There is little doubt that, if signs voted, Beto would crush Ted. More significantly, the turnout in early voting has, so far, been enormous and that unquestionably bodes well for O’Rourke. Finally, full disclosure, I voted for Beto on Tuesday.

But yard signs don’t vote and, realistically, the hill for Democrats to climb in statewide elections here in Texas is very steep. After a shaky start, Cruz seems to have the wind at his back and two recent polls of likely voters confirmed that feeling, with Cruz leading by 5 to 6 points.

Republicans also appear well-positioned to pick off Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. 538 gives Congressman Kevin Cramer a two in three shot. North Dakota has, of course, a tiny population (about one-half the size of the City of San Antonio) so elections there are personal and intimate, difficult to poll and hard to predict. Cramer is the state’s only congressman, so he has been elected to his job by the same pool of voters that elected Heitkamp to hers. Both candidates are well-known and well-liked. There have been few polls in North Dakota but Heitkamp has not led in one since last February and Cramer has been ahead by double digits in the last two. A new state law that requires ND voters to have a street address might make it more difficult for Native Americans living on reservations to vote and they were important in Heitkamp’s narrow victory six years ago. Heitkamp’s vote against Kavanaugh may have been the final nail in the coffin, shifting attention from pocketbook issues like trade and tariffs where she is strong to social issues and immigration where Cramer's support from Trump helps him.

Seat	R Count
Incumbents	42
Utah	43
Nebraska	44
Mississippi 1	45
Wyoming	46
Mississippi 2	47
Tennessee	48
Texas	49
North Dakota	50

So, looking at the this chart, it is difficult for me to see how the Democrats can get to 51 when the Republicans seem to have a lock on 50.

Conversely, I can see five really good places for Republicans to go to get their 51^st seat; Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Florida and Arizona.

In Nevada 538 gives the Republican incumbent Sen. Dean Heller a three in five edge over challenger Democratic Congresswoman Jacky Rosen in a state that voted for both Clinton and Obama; and the trend seems to be going Heller’s way. He’s been gaining ground in recent polls.

In Missouri 538 gives Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill a four in seven edge over Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley in a state that voted solidly for Trump. There have been six polls in Missouri this month with each candidate ahead in three but none by more than 2.2 percent.

In Indiana 538 gives incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly a five in seven chance over former state representative Mike Braun. Donnelly has been consistently, though narrowly, leading in the few polls that have been taken in this race. However, Braun led in the last poll and I suspect the 538 odds will move some in Braun’s favor between now and election day.

No combination of outcomes in these three states (NV, MO, IN) would surprise me. All of the incumbents could easily win, all of the challengers could easily win, the R’s could easily sweep but so could the D’s.

However, it seems to me that all three are trending away from the Democrats and toward the Republicans. In Missouri and Indiana that seems logical because Trump’s improving poll numbers and the Kavanaugh vote are probably helpful. But Rosen’s failure to get traction against Heller in Nevada is puzzling. The D’s really need Nevada in their column but it doesn’t look like they are going to get it.

Florida also has a Democrat, Sen. Bill Nelson, defending his seat against Republican Governor Rick Scott. However, in this case (unlike Nevada, Missouri and Indiana) the wind seems to be in the sails of the Democrat. Nelson has led in six polls since October, often by healthy margins and seems to be getting an additional boost from the candidacy of Andrew Gillum the unexpected winner of the Democratic primary for governor (to replace Scott). Gillum is running a strong race and seems poised to become Florida’s first African-American governor. His candidacy will likely increase black voter turnout and that should help Nelson in his race.

Florida is a very large, very diverse and very strange state that just got hit by a major hurricane. Frankly, nothing that happens in Florida ever surprises me, political or otherwise. But right now it looks like the Sunshine State could be a bright spot for Democrats this year.

Speaking of strange states, Arizona has an open seat due to the retirement of Republican Sen. Jeff Flake (the election to fill John McCain’s seat will not be until 2020; Republican appointee Jon Kyle will serve until then).

Arizona leans Republican but the changing demographics there favor Democrats in a national political environment that is also favorable to Democrats. The candidates of the two parties are both white women and both are sitting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. They have been trading very slight poll victories back and forth for months. 538 gives the Democrat, Krysten Sinema, a very slight edge over former USAF pilot Martha McSally. The only surprise here will be if the result is not very close.

Note: I did not mention New Jersey, where Democrats have a flawed incumbent in a good situation, or West Virginia, where Democrats have a good incumbent in a tough situation. 538 pegs the chances for both NJ Sen. Robert Menendez and WV Sen. Joe Manchin at nine in ten. Likewise, Tina Smith, the Democrat running in the special election in Minnesota to fill the seat vacated by Al Franken, and Jon Tester, the amazingly resilient Montana wheat farmer and two-term U.S. Senator, both seem to be in good shape at eight in nine and seven in eight, respectively.

Finally, I think it is worth noting that there are senate elections in five states that Obama won in 2012 and Trump won in 2016. One of them, Florida, I’ve already discussed. I did not mention the other four – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio – because the incumbent Democratic senators in those states all appear to be on the glide path to easy victories. That’s a very bright silver lining for senate Democrats in an otherwise gloomy year.